The Climate Factors That Could Make This Year’s Fall Leaves Less Spectacular

September is here and fall leaves should be right around the corner. Well, maybe…

Fall leaves don’t look the same every year. In 2026, some parts of the United States could see less color than usual, along with leaves turning brown or falling earlier.

Learn what affects fall color, which parts of the country may have a weaker season, and where the best color is still expected.

Why Weather Affects Fall Color

How colorful a tree gets in the fall starts with how it does during the spring and summer. Leaves are green because of chlorophyll, which trees use to make food from sunlight. As the days get shorter in fall, the chlorophyll starts to disappear and other colors begin to show.

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill says fall color can vary based on the weather, sunlight, and how much sugar is left in the leaves. Some of the pigments that create fall color are already present in the leaves, while weather and the amount of sugar in the leaves can affect the final color.

A hot, dry summer can make for a less colorful fall. When trees don’t get enough water, their leaves may turn brown, change earlier than usual, or fall off before they have a chance to reach their best color.

Sunny days and cool, nonfreezing nights generally create favorable conditions for stronger fall color.

“Cool September nights stimulate the cells at the base of each leaf stem to dry out and develop a corky layer between itself and the tree proper,” according to the National Park Service. “This eventually stops the import of water into the leaf.”

Healthy trees that enter this process with adequate moisture have a better chance of holding their leaves long enough to develop stronger color.

Where Fall Color May Be Stronger or More Spotty in 2026

The 2026 forecast doesn’t call for poor fall color everywhere. Some parts of the country may still have a good season, while places hit harder by heat and drought could see weaker color.

The Farmers’ Almanac says parts of the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest may have a more spotty season. Parts of Texas and the western Gulf region could also see less color. The interior West, Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and northern New England may be more mixed, with conditions varying from place to place.

FOX Weather also notes that even areas with a weaker forecast could still have some good pockets of color.

The central Appalachians have one of the better outlooks this fall. That includes parts of West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and western Virginia.

“If you are planning a leaf-peeping getaway in 2026, keep watching local conditions as the season draws closer,” according to the Farmers’ Almanac. “But for now, the map points to an especially promising year in the Appalachians and much of the eastern half of the country.”

Sources

• Farmers’ Almanac, “2026 Fall Foliage Outlook: Where Autumn Color Should Shine — And Where It May Struggle”
• FOX Weather, “Fall foliage forecast: Why some areas might experience a spotty season”
• University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, “The science behind fall foliage”
• U.S. National Park Service, “Rise and Fall of Foliage”
• North Carolina State University, “Drought Stress in Trees: What to Expect and What to Do”

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