4 World Cup Dark-Horse Teams That Can Actually Make A Run

Forty-eight teams. An extra knockout round. And a draw that, in several groups, looks like FIFA was actively trying to cause chaos. Someone is going to go deep at this tournament that nobody saw coming. 

The biggest World Cup in history will, of course, still feature powerhouses and expected favorites to win. But more competition means more potential for surprise runs and new fan-favorite squads. 

Here are four dark-horse teams that should be on your radar for this summer's FIFA World Cup.

Odds to win World Cup: +3000
Odds to advance from group: -900
Group I opponents: Iraq (June 16), Senegal (June 22), France (June 26)

Norway is back at the World Cup for the first time in 28 years, and it arrives as one of Europe's most in-form sides. It dominated a Euro World Cup qualifying group that included Italy and also went undefeated during the qualifying process.

Another story is that striker Erling Haaland has spent his entire career watching the World Cup on television; watching the other superstars get to shine on the biggest stage. Haaland scored a mind-numbing 16 goals in qualifying in just eight matches played. Simple math shows that's an average of two goals per game. That just doesn't happen in this sport. Norway did not sneak through — it bulldozed through, and Haaland did it with the energy of a man who benches small cars for fun and whose hair has its own agent. 

Anyway, Group I features France, Senegal and Iraq. Norway needs to finish second. Beating Senegal and taking something off France is entirely doable for a squad that also includes Martin Ødegaard and Alexander Sørloth floating around Haaland. Get into the knockouts, and nobody will want to play Norway. 

Odds to win World Cup: +4000
Odds to advance from group: -1000
Group K opponents: Uzbekistan (June 17), Congo DR (June 23), Portugal (June 27)

Colombia has James Rodríguez, Luis Díaz and a deep attacking pool that gives it the ability to beat anybody in the world on a given day. And its qualifying campaign backed it up. 

Group K puts the squad alongside Portugal, DR Congo and Uzbekistan. That is a group Colombia can absolutely win. Néstor Lorenzo has built a team that no longer depends on one moment of James' magic to unlock games, thanks to Díaz's directness, a press that suffocates in midfield and genuine defensive solidity make this a complete side. James still pulls the strings, but he doesn't have to carry everything anymore.

James turns 35 in July. He has spent the last few years drifting from Rayo to León to Minnesota just to stay sharp enough to be here. He has one of the most elegant left feet in the game, capable of a magical free kick or a surgically precise through ball. Despite his age, he can still change the game from a stationary position.

Colombia's biggest current star is Luis Díaz. After moving from Liverpool to Bayern Munich, he became one of Europe's most feared wingers. He finished the season with a whopping 26 goals and 19 assists across all competitions. World-class numbers. Oh, and he just won the Meisterschale, or as you and I say, the Bundesliga trophy. Luis Díaz will be one of the most important players at this World Cup.

Odds to win World Cup: +5000
Odds to advance from group: -1000
Group C opponents: Brazil (June 13), Scotland (June 19), Haiti (June 24)

At some point, we should probably stop calling Morocco a dark horse. It reached the World Cup semifinals in Qatar. It beat Spain. It beat Portugal. It did it with a structure so tight and a defensive shape so organized that elite coaches spent days trying to figure out how to break it.

That tactical core is still largely intact — and then ex-manager Walid Regragui walked out in March. The new coach is Mohamed Ouahbi, a former U23 manager who most people had never heard of three months ago. On paper, that should terrify Atlas Lions fans. In practice, the system is so deeply embedded in this squad that the identity doesn't live in the dugout. It lives in the players. Achraf Hakimi knows his role. Youssef En-Nesyri knows his role. This group has been through a World Cup semifinal together. A coaching change doesn't erase that muscle memory.

Morocco opens Group C against Brazil. Not against Haiti. Not against Scotland. Against Brazil, in what is immediately one of the best games of the group stage. Beat or draw the Seleção in that opener, and Morocco announces itself to the entire tournament.

Qatar was not luck. This is a team that knows exactly how it wins. The 2022 run raised the bar. The manager who built that run is gone. Now we find out how deep the foundations actually go.

Odds to win World Cup: +6500
Odds to advance from group: -400
Group F opponents: Netherlands (June 14), Tunisia (June 21), Sweden (June 25)

Japan has beaten Germany and Spain at a World Cup. Both of those sentences used to be considered impossible. Now, it's just the results from the 2022 tournament in Qatar.

The pressing system Hajime Moriyasu has built is among the most disciplined in international football. The team's pressing traps are overwhelming, its transitions rapid and its shape is almost impossible to disorganize. Kaoru Mitoma and Takefusa Kubo provide the technical quality. The collective provides the method that makes playing them a real nightmare. Players across their formation compete at the highest level of European domestic football. The talent is now mixed with plenty of experience.

Group F draws them against the Netherlands, Tunisia and Sweden. It's a tricky group, but Japan could very well advance. And if it does, a team this compact and this tactically fearless becomes one of the most uncomfortable draws in the knockouts. Nobody wanted to play Japan in Qatar. Nothing has changed.

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